By 2050 Flagstaff could see hotter temperatures, increased drought, higher risk of wildfires and less snowfall.
That's the outlook presented by city sustainability staff, who added that climate trends will have cascading effects on the community.
Flagstaff will look to reduce the city's overall impact on the environment through the upcoming Carbon Neutrality Plan, which sets the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2030 and is up for final approval from the Flagstaff City Council on May 18.
In the meantime, sustainability staff are seeking public feedback on the draft before the climate document is finalized.
The sustainability section announced a series of virtual public discussions set to take place this month. Two of them are planned Thursday from 4 to 6 p.m. and Saturday from 10 to 11 a.m., accessible through the city’s website. The most recent discussion was hosted by Flagstaff Climate and Energy Specialists Jenny Niemann and Ramon DC Alatorre last Friday.
The public discussions are meant to introduce citizens to the upcoming plan, allow staff to gather feedback and provide the community with the latest information, city officials said.
“Your feedback is so important to helping us go in the right direction,” Niemann said. “This might not be your cup of tea, in which case we are even more appreciative that you are here today to talk to us.”
The city is also asking community members to complete a survey providing feedback on the Carbon Neutrality Plan before the deadline on April 20 at 9 p.m. In addition to the plan itself, city staff seeks feedback on a funding strategy that will be presented to the city council.
“We want to know which funding mechanisms [the community] would be OK with, so that is one of the questions in the survey,” Niemann said.
Funding sources include increasing city fees, such as the environmental management fee, proposing a voter-approved sales tax, issuing bonds for large projects, applying for federal and private grants, and reallocating city resources to environmental projects.
Outcomes of the Carbon Neutrality Plan
Reaching carbon neutrality brings new initiatives to reduce both carbon emissions and remove remaining emissions from the atmosphere, Alatorre said. If all goes accordingly, those actions can balance Flagstaff’s net carbon emissions to zero by the end of the decade.
But in order to achieve substantial reductions to carbon emissions, the plan will shift the way the city currently operates, such as reducing dependence on cars.
Several other strategies were detailed at the most recent public discussion, including increasing the number of electric vehicles, installing solar energy systems and reducing overall energy consumption.
Flagstaff's dependency on cars will be addressed by increasing walking and biking opportunities in the community. The plan looks to bolster a comprehensive public transit network, allowing for greater pedestrian and biking accessibility.
Electric vehicles are also key to managing vehicle emissions, sustainability staff said.
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“The plan envisions the support of a transition to electric vehicles to the tune of about 30% of all local miles being electric or coming from zero emissions tailpipe vehicles by 2030,” Alatorre said.
The plan also adds new solar systems, including 2,000 home solar systems and the implementation of up to six utility-scale solar energy projects accounting for a total of 60 megawatts of energy. Many of those projects, including a solar farm at Red Gap Ranch, are already in the early stages of development, Alatorre said.
“The city plans to walk the talk using some of that utility-scale solar to have 100% of our electricity powering municipal buildings from renewable energy sources” Alatorre said. “In addition, the city will complete energy-efficiency and fuel-switching efforts across municipal buildings.”
Another strategy is to retrofit half of the city's homes -- which is about 12,500 total properties. That process improves a building’s energy efficiency utilizing new technology, such as providing improved insulation, better heating and cooling systems and efficient lighting.
That also includes retrofitting commercial buildings, Altorre said, adding that 15% of commercial buildings could go one step further and “fully electrify.”
Recent figures show Flagstaff produced 759,000 tons of carbon emissions in 2016, but through utilizing the strategies in the Carbon Neutrality Plan, that number is expected to fall to 471,000 by 2029. The remaining number of emissions is considered “unavoidable,” Alatorre said, but can be offset by carbon removal.
“To get to carbon neutrality, we first reduce emissions as much as possible. We then measure emissions and find out what it is that we still produce each year, and finally, we balance with an equivalent amount of removal,” Alatorre explained.
Carbon removal is achieved using a portfolio of different methods, including both biological and technological removal, Alatorre said. Those methods will be implemented based on necessity.
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