According to the latest model prepared by Coconino County, at this rate it will take a year to reach 80% of the county’s population, the percentage at which the community is likely to develop herd immunity to COVID-19.

Just under 20,000 vaccine doses have been received by Coconino County Health and Human Services (CCHHS) since late December, about 12,000 of which are first doses, Interim CCHHS Director Kim Musselman told the Board of Supervisors during Tuesday's meeting.

The Arizona Department of Health Services reported Wednesday that 13,275 vaccines have been administered in Coconino County, of the 518,125 administered statewide. Coconino has the second highest vaccination rate per 100,000, behind Greenlee, which has administered 1,500 vaccines.

Weekly allocations have been arriving in batches containing anywhere from 600 to 2,500 doses. Of these total vaccines, about 38% is being distributed by CCHHS at its Fort Tuthill vaccination site, while the other 62% is sent to partners throughout the region.

Partners with the greatest capacity include North Country HealthCare’s Flagstaff clinic, which can currently administer up to 200 vaccines per day, and Flagstaff Medical Center. When FMC opens its community vaccine clinic for eligible groups in early February, Musselman said it will be able to offer up to 500 vaccination appointments a day. In March, it will increase to 1,000.

Allocations to different areas within the county are based on population, the same way the state determines the county’s allocation, Musselman said during a public vaccine update that was livestreamed Monday. Within Coconino County, Flagstaff has received about 13.5% of the total vaccine allocation, while Page has received 13% and the Grand Canyon has received about 12%.

During this update, county leaders encouraged community members to contact their senators, representatives and Gov. Doug Ducey to request more vaccines for Coconino County. Contact information for these individuals is now available on the county’s vaccine webpage.

An estimated 98,665 county residents are eligible for the vaccine, based on age and location. Children under the age of 14 and individuals living on the Navajo Nation and Hopi Reservation, who receive their shots directly from the federal government, were excluded from the count.

Roughly 23% of this group, including the Phase 1a group and select members of Phase 1b, is currently eligible to receive the vaccine. The next priority group — the remaining Phase 1b essential workers and adults with high-risk conditions who live in congregate settings — is the largest, at an estimated 35,888 individuals, or 36% of the total eligible group.

The federal plan of distributing 100 million doses in 100 days, though, would only provide enough vaccines for 22% of the county population.

To date, the county has received 0.04% of the total national supply of vaccines, CCHHS Division Manager Sarah Schildecker said Tuesday, which would equate to about 40,000 vaccines, or 402 vaccine appointments daily, in the 100-day national distribution plan. At the time, she said the department had not yet received guidance from the state about how the federal administration’s most recent plans to purchase another 100 million doses each of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines would affect local allocations.

“Hopefully, if the Biden Administration is signing on to purchase more vaccine doses, we will see that subsequent increase. To what extent is going to depend upon how much is allocated to Arizona,” Schildecker said, noting that the arrival of additional vaccines will likely occur in the same trickle the health department has seen in recent weeks.

Coconino County had a total reported 14,775 COVID-19 cases as of Wednesday, with 55 new additions since the previous day. Of the total cases, 24% have been among individuals who are 65 years or older or who have at least one chronic medical condition.

Health officials continue to encourage community members, including those who have received vaccine doses, to continue to follow the COVID-19 mitigation practices including wearing a face mask, distancing from others and washing hands frequently.

“When it’s time to stop doing these mitigation measures, we’re going to let you know, loud and clear, we’re going to let you know that,” Musselman said Monday. “But until then, please, please, even if you have your vaccine, continue to practice all of these things so that we can find our way out of this pandemic in shortest order as we possibly can.”