The county goal is for 120,000 Coconino residents to be vaccinated, either though Coconino County Health and Human Services’ (CCHHS) vaccination site or its local partners that will join in the mass vaccination effort. This is about 84% of the county’s population, based on 2019 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Friday, Jan. 22, will be the last day of COVID-19 testing at Fort Tuthill. Testing will resume the following day at CCC. Individuals who scheduled appointments for Saturday or later will be serviced at the new site.

The new testing site will be open weekdays from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. and Saturdays from 8 a.m. to noon. Saliva-based testing through a partnership with Arizona State University will continue to be offered at the location, which will be managed by CCC, but nasopharyngeal testing will not be offered -- though it is available at certain partner organizations such as North Country HealthCare. 

Individuals seeking saliva testing are asked to abstain from food or drink for 30 minutes prior to the test and to register in advance.

Northern Arizona University continues to offer testing for community members at the University Fieldhouse from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Monday through Saturday.

“There was always the plan that we would be doing testing and that, at the point in time when we were transitioning to the vaccines, we wanted to have a plan in place so that we could transition those responsibilities off of the county, and in particular HHS, so that we could move and focus on vaccinations,” said Interim CCHHS Director Kim Musselman in a presentation to the Coconino County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday.

As of Tuesday, Coconino County was vaccinating individuals at the highest rate per 100,000 residents in Arizona, but has since been surpassed by Greenlee. By Thursday, 10,154 vaccines have been administered throughout Coconino County, with 4,321 remaining doses reserved for appointments. County staff say the goal is to continue to improve its vaccination rates.

Among numerous local organizations that are distributing vaccines, the current capacity for vaccinations in Coconino County is 789 per day, with 414 in Flagstaff. That is based on staffing, but will ultimately be determined by vaccine availability, which Musselman described as both the key component and frustration of the county’s 120,000-person “Mass Vaccination Mission.”

To vaccinate all Coconino County residents would require 1,600 available doses daily, based on modeling performed by county staff. At this rate, the vaccination process would likely take until Aug. 1. At the expected vaccine allocation — the federal plan of 100 million doses over the course of 100 days — the county would have about 465 vaccines available per day and it would take until June 1 to vaccinate 19% of the population. If the allocation were set at 300 million nationally, the county would receive 929 vaccines daily and be able to vaccinate 58% of its population by Aug. 1.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, has estimated that between 70% and 85% of the U.S. population will need to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity.

In Coconino County, the entire Phase 1 priority vaccination group, including essential services and most high-risk individuals, is expected to be completed this spring, with vaccines opening to the first members of the general public by the summer.

“Unless the vaccine exponentially increases in availability, we can’t vaccinate any sooner than those target dates or even later, depending on how it all comes together,” Musselman said.

Vaccination capacity is expected to increase as the county works to bring on new vaccination partners.

Musselman said there are currently about 15 different organizations and businesses throughout the county -- such as the Guidance Center, Fry’s, Safeway, NACA and the Coconino County Detention Facility -- ready to begin administering vaccines as soon as they receive them. In most cases, CCHHS allocates vaccines to these providers, though some, like pharmacies, receive their allocations directly from the state.

CCHHS division manager Sarah Schildecker said Thursday the team is working to distribute its vaccines as equally as possible across the county’s geographic area.

“We are not able to fill all of the orders that our partners place; some have to be reduced just because we simply don’t have that much vaccine coming in every week,” Schildecker said, noting that, so far, federal administration changes have not yet altered local vaccine allocations and doses are being managed the same way they were previously. Future allocations will depend on manufacturing.

“Over time we will see that more doses are manufactured as production is able to ramp up, so we’ve seen more in January than we did in December,” Schildecker said. “That trend will continue, but it’s going to depend on the supply that’s available from our manufacturers and it’s also going to depend on what new vaccines are approved by the FDA for emergency-use authorization, so as more vaccines come online, we will see a greater COVID-19 vaccine supply.”

When additional allocations are received, the vaccination site at Fort Tuthill will eventually be expanding from its current rate of 22 vaccines an hour, which could be doubled as early as Saturday, if the county receives its order for two Mobile Army Surgical Hospital (MASH) tents for vaccine distribution. But those tents are in high demand, Emergency Management Director Wes Dison said Tuesday.

According to current plans, the tents would be used for vaccination pods that would be located on opposite ends of the Fort Tuthill parking lot, allowing up to 30 spaces at each pod for drive-up vaccinations. It will cost the county an estimated $50,000 a month to run this site at its expanded capacity.

Dison said the county has also submitted requests for additional staffing through the Arizona Department of Health Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. If these requests are not granted, the county is working on a volunteer medical corps program that would allow qualified members of the community such as retired medical providers to help administer vaccines.

CCHHS reported 14,202 total COVID-19 cases on Thursday, up 158 from Wednesday, and 237 total deaths. An estimated 10,415 county residents have recovered from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. Last week, 1,026 new cases were added, making it the second-highest weekly case count to date, following the previous week that saw 1,263 cases.