Democrat Nikki Bagley, who is running against Republican incumbent Sylvia Allen in Legislative District 6, is still hopeful that uncounted ballots could give her a win in the state Senate race.

Thousands of early ballots and provisional ballots have yet to be counted in the four counties included in the northern Arizona district.

“I really think it could go either way,” Bagley said. “I'm content either way, I love my life and my job, so it’s all good, but I am hopeful.”

The most recent results from the Arizona Secretary of State shows Allen leading Bagley 40,838 votes to 38,023 votes, or 51.78 percent to 48.22 percent. They also show Reps. Bob Thorpe and Brenda Barton having pulled away from their Democratic challenger Alex Martinez in the LD6 House of Representatives race. Thorpe received 40,465 votes or 35.11 percent of votes cast, Barton received 39,385 votes or 34.17 percent of total votes cast and Martinez received 35,409 votes or 30.72 percent of total votes cast.

A rough calculation based on the number of ballots still uncounted in each county, the proportion of voters in each county who also are located in Legislative District 6 and the percent of counted ballots that went for Bagley over Allen show only a slim possibility of the Democrat taking the race.

In Coconino County, for example, 15,000 ballots haven't been counted and 69 percent of ballots already counted belonged to voters from LD6. Bagley has so far received 60 percent of votes to Allen's 40 percent in the county. If the estimated 10,350 LD6 ballots uncounted in Coconino follow the same partisan pattern as those counted, Allen would pick up 4,140 votes and Bagley would pick up 6,210 or a net of 2,070.

In Gila County, where about 3,300 ballots have not been counted, 2,000 of those could be from LD6 if they mirror the 61 percent of counted ballots countywide that were cast by LD6 voters. If the partisan breakdown falls along the same lines, Bagley would pick up 620 of those votes and Allen would pick up 1,360, or a net of 740.

In Navajo County where 1,107 ballots are uncounted and 28 percent of ballots cast were from voters also in LD6, the same set of calculations produce an estimated 310 ballots uncounted in the LD6 race with a net of 132 going to Allen.

The uncounted LD6 votes in Yavapai county, an estimated 5,100, would be expected to split evenly for Allen and Bagley if they mirror votes already counted in the race, which would leave the candidates' positions unchanged.

The sum of those calculations would put total net gain by Bagley at an estimated 1,198 votes, which is about 40 percent the 2,800 votes she currently needs to catch up to Allen.

Emery Cowan can be reached at (928) 556-2250 or ecowan@azdailysun.com

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Emery Cowan writes about science, health and the environment for the Arizona Daily Sun, covering everything from forest restoration to endangered species recovery efforts.

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